perm filename FLY.XGP[1,JMC] blob
sn#878519 filedate 1989-10-24 generic text, type T, neo UTF8
/LMAR=0/XLINE=3/USET=17␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F1
␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ πGPersonal ∨ying machines
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|During␈α∪World␈α∪War␈α∪II,␈α∪journalists,␈α∪when␈α∪otherwise␈α∪unoccupied,␈α∪would␈α∪speculate␈α∪about␈α∪the
␈↓ α,␈↓``post-war␈α∨world''.␈α∨ Unlike␈α∨present␈α∨journalistic␈α∨speculations␈α∨with␈α∨similar␈α∨titles,␈α∨theirs␈α∨were
␈↓ α,␈↓generally␈α∀optimistic,␈α∀and␈α∀one␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀themes␈α∀was␈α∀that␈α∀certain␈α∀new␈α∀inventions␈α∀would␈α∀make␈α∀our
␈↓ α,␈↓lives␈α∂more␈α∂comfortable.␈α∂ One␈α∂such␈α∂speculation␈α∂was␈α∂that␈α∂helicopters␈α∂would␈α∂become␈α∂as␈α∂common␈α∂as
␈↓ α,␈↓cars␈α∃and␈α∃be␈α∃used␈α∃instead␈α∃of␈α∃cars.␈α∃ Forty␈α∃years␈α∃have␈α∃passed,␈α∃and␈α∃this␈α∃still␈α∃hasn't␈α∃come␈α∃about.
␈↓ α,␈↓Why␈α⊂didn't␈α⊂it␈α⊂happen?␈α⊂ Is␈α⊂it␈α⊂impossible␈α⊂or␈α⊂can␈α⊂it␈α⊂still␈α⊂happen?␈α⊂ What␈α⊂is␈α⊂required?␈α⊂ Whose␈α⊂fault
␈↓ α,␈↓it it anyway?
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|To␈α∂begin␈α∂with,␈α∂what␈α∂good␈α∂would␈α∂be␈α∂a␈α∂personal␈α∂∨ying␈α∂machine␈α∂that␈α∂could␈α∂be␈α∂used␈α∂like␈α∂a␈α∂car,
␈↓ α,␈↓i.e.␈α⊂kept␈α⊂at␈α⊂home␈α⊂and␈α⊂∨own␈α⊂to␈α⊂work␈α⊂or␈α⊂to␈α⊂the␈α⊂store?␈α⊂ To␈α⊂many␈α⊂people,␈α⊂myself␈α⊂included,␈α⊂it␈α⊂seems
␈↓ α,␈↓obvious,␈α∀but␈α∀there␈α∀are␈α∀many␈α∀skeptics␈α∀and␈α∀negative␈α∀thinkers,␈α∀so␈α∀it's␈α∀worthwhile␈α∀spelling␈α∀it␈α∀out.
␈↓ α,␈↓Here are some advantages:
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α∀If␈α∀the␈α∀∨ying␈α∀machine␈α∀was␈α∀reasonably␈α∀fast,␈α∀the␈α∀comfortable␈α∀commuting␈α∀range␈α∀would␈α∀be
␈↓ α,␈↓much␈α∂larger.␈α∂ More␈α∂people␈α∂could␈α∂live␈α∂where␈α∂they␈α∂want,␈α∂and␈α∂husbands␈α∂and␈α∂wives␈α∂would␈α∂be␈α∂more
␈↓ α,␈↓independent of each other in the job market.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α⊂Intrinsically␈α⊂there␈α⊂is␈α⊂plenty␈α⊂of␈α⊂room␈α⊂in␈α⊂the␈α⊂sky.␈α⊂ With␈α⊂accurate␈α⊂enough␈α⊂electronic␈α⊂control,
␈↓ α,␈↓there wouldn't be tra≠c jams.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|3.␈α∩Less␈α∩land␈α∩would␈α∩be␈α∩occupied␈α∩by␈α∩highways␈α∩and␈α∩there␈α∩would␈α∩be␈α∩less␈α∩expense␈α∩in␈α∩building
␈↓ α,␈↓them.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|4. Flying is fun.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∃idea␈α∃was␈α∃good,␈α∃but␈α∃the␈α∃speculations␈α∃were␈α∃naive.␈α∃ With␈α∃1990s␈α∃technology,␈α∃the␈α∃dream
␈↓ α,␈↓may␈α⊗be␈α⊗technically␈α⊗and␈α⊗economically␈α⊗realizable,␈α⊗but␈α⊗it␈α⊗may␈α⊗require␈α⊗innovations␈α⊗in␈α⊗the␈α⊗social
␈↓ α,␈↓mechanisms␈α∀for␈α∀supporting␈α∀technology␈α∀in␈α∀order␈α∀to␈α∀get␈α∀the␈α∀development␈α∀done.␈α∀ It␈α∀may␈α∀require
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α∞reversal␈α∂of␈α∂some␈α∂recent␈α∂innovations␈α∂in␈α∂technology␈α∞assassination␈α∂in␈α∂order␈α∂that␈α∂it␈α∂be␈α∂allowed␈α∂to
␈↓ α,␈↓happen.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|To begin with, what's wrong with helicopters.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α~They␈α~are␈α~expensive.␈α~ A␈α~reasonable␈α~four␈α~place␈α~helicopter␈α~with␈α~instrumentation␈α~costs
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓∧1␈↓250,000␈α∩and␈α∩␈↓∧2␈↓150,000␈α∩per␈α∩year␈α∩to␈α∩maintain.␈α∩ (These␈α∩≡gures␈α∩are␈α∩guesses␈α∩and␈α∩to␈α∩be␈α∩replaced␈α∩by
␈↓ α,␈↓current␈α∪≡gures).␈α∪ This␈α∪is␈α∪not␈α∪the␈α∪decisive␈α∪problem,␈α∪because␈α∪there␈α∪a␈α∪substantial␈α∪number␈α∪of␈α∪rich
␈↓ α,␈↓people␈α∃who␈α∃can␈α∃a≥ord␈α∃that␈α∃and␈α∀who␈α∃pay␈α∃much␈α∃more␈α∃for␈α∃private␈α∃jets.␈α∃ If␈α∃this␈α∃were␈α∃the␈α∃only
␈↓ α,␈↓problem␈α⊗the␈α⊗rich␈α⊗would␈α⊗the␈α⊗restof␈α⊗us␈α⊗into␈α⊗the␈α⊗helicopter␈α⊗world␈α⊗just␈α⊗as␈α⊗they␈α⊗led␈α⊗us␈α⊗into␈α⊗the
␈↓ α,␈↓automotive world.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α↔Helicopters␈α↔are␈α↔too␈α↔dangerous␈α↔unless␈α↔operating␈α↔restrictions␈α↔are␈α↔imposed␈α↔that␈α↔seriously
␈↓ α,␈↓impair␈α∂their␈α∂usefulness.␈α∂ For␈α∂a␈α∂long␈α∂time␈α∂helicopters␈α∂were␈α∂regularly␈α∂used␈α∂from␈α∂roof␈α∂tops,␈α∂but␈α∂this
␈↓ α,␈↓practice␈α∂has␈α∂mostly␈α∂been␈α∂replaced␈α∂by␈α∂helipads␈α∂in␈α∂parking␈α∂lots.␈α∂ My␈α∂impression␈α∂is␈α∂that␈α∂occasional
␈↓ α,␈↓unpredictable␈α∩wind␈α∩gusts␈α∩caused␈α∩too␈α∩many␈α∩accidents.␈α∩ Also␈α∩helicopters␈α∩have␈α∩only␈α∩recently␈α∩been
␈↓ α,␈↓able␈α↔to␈α↔∨y␈α↔in␈α↔instrument␈α↔weather,␈α↔e.g.␈α↔through␈α↔overcasts.␈α↔ They␈α↔can␈α↔do␈α↔this␈α↔only␈α↔at␈α↔similar
␈↓ α,␈↓altitudes␈α⊗to␈α⊗those␈α⊗used␈α⊗by␈α⊗airplanes.␈α⊗ Indeed␈α⊗it␈α⊗may␈α⊗be␈α⊗that␈α⊗the␈α⊗only␈α⊗person␈α⊗who␈α⊗commutes
␈↓ α,␈↓anywhere␈α∂regularly␈α∂using␈α∂a␈α∂helicopter␈α∂is␈α∂the␈α∂President␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂United␈α∂States.␈α∂ Even␈α∂he␈α∂can't␈α∂go␈α∂to
␈↓ α,␈↓the store by helicopter or even go to Camp David without several hours notice.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F2
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|3.␈α⊃They␈α⊃require␈α⊃too␈α⊃much␈α⊃skill␈α⊃to␈α⊃∨y␈α⊃them␈α⊃safely,␈α⊃and␈α⊃a␈α⊃lot␈α⊃of␈α⊃willingness␈α⊃to␈α⊃cancel␈α⊃trips␈α⊃if
␈↓ α,␈↓the weather appears doubtful.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|4.␈α∩They␈α∩are␈α∩too␈α∩noisy.␈α∩ Many␈α∩cities␈α∩forbid␈α∩landings␈α∩except␈α∩at␈α∩airports,␈α∩hospitals␈α∩and␈α∩a␈α∩few
␈↓ α,␈↓other designated places.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|5.␈α≥They␈α≥have␈α≥poor␈α≥public␈α≥acceptance.␈α≥ There␈α≥has␈α≥always␈α≥been␈α≥a␈α≥problem␈α≥of␈α≥public
␈↓ α,␈↓acceptance␈α∀of␈α∀any␈α∀new␈α∀annoyance␈α∀except␈α∀by␈α∀phenomena␈α∀in␈α∀whose␈α∀bene≡ts␈α∀the␈α∀public␈α∀already
␈↓ α,␈↓shares.␈α⊃ Remember␈α⊃the␈α⊃proposed␈α⊃laws␈α⊃about␈α⊃there␈α⊃having␈α⊃to␈α⊃be␈α⊃a␈α⊃man␈α⊃carrying␈α⊃a␈α⊃∨ag␈α⊃walking
␈↓ α,␈↓in␈α∀front␈α∀of␈α∀automobiles.␈α∀ The␈α∀anti-technological␈α∀attitudes␈α∀widely␈α∀prevalent␈α∀among␈α∀intellectuals
␈↓ α,␈↓combined with equalitarianism and litigiousness will be di≠cult to overcome.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Here␈α≠are␈α≠some␈α≠ideas␈α≠about␈α≠how␈α≠the␈α≠problems␈α≠can␈α≠be␈α≠solved.␈α≠ Helicopters␈α≠are␈α≠still␈α≠a
␈↓ α,␈↓possibility but not the only one.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|1.␈α∨We␈α∨don't␈α∨propose␈α∨anything␈α∨special␈α∨concerning␈α∨cost.␈α∨ If␈α∨a␈α∨large␈α∨market␈α∨develops,
␈↓ α,␈↓competition and automation will bring the cost down. The rich will lead the way.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|2.␈α∀Personal␈α∀∨ying␈α∀machines␈α∀must␈α∀be␈α∀entirely␈α∀automatically␈α∀∨own.␈α∀ This␈α∀is␈α∀independent␈α∀of
␈↓ α,␈↓whether␈α⊗there␈α⊗is␈α⊗a␈α⊗big␈α⊗automatic␈α⊗tra≠c␈α⊗control␈α⊗system␈α⊗or␈α⊗whether␈α⊗each␈α⊗machine␈α⊗avoids␈α⊗the
␈↓ α,␈↓others␈α∂with␈α∂its␈α∂own␈α∂detection␈α∂and␈α∂computation␈α∂apparatus.␈α∂ Anyone␈α∂who␈α∂treats␈α∂an␈α∂airplane␈α∂¬-␈α∂let
␈↓ α,␈↓alone␈α∃a␈α∃helicopter␈α∃¬-␈α∃like␈α∃and␈α∃automobile␈α∃is␈α∃asking␈α∃for␈α∃a␈α∃short␈α∃life.␈α∃ We␈α∃humans␈α∃just␈α∃aren't
␈↓ α,␈↓reliable␈α_enough.␈α_ Airliners␈α_which␈α_∨y␈α_≡xed␈α_routes␈α_require␈α_at␈α_least␈α_two␈α_professional␈α_pilots␈α_to
␈↓ α,␈↓achieve␈α∃su≠cient␈α∃safety.␈α∃ Getting␈α∃su≠cient␈α∃reliability␈α∃in␈α∃computer␈α∃control␈α∃is␈α∃an␈α∃unsolved␈α∃but
␈↓ α,␈↓solvable␈α⊃problem.␈α⊃ (Some␈α⊃computer␈α⊃scientists␈α⊃might␈α⊃disagree␈α⊃with␈α⊃this␈α⊃judgment).␈α⊃ Much␈α⊃of␈α⊃the
␈↓ α,␈↓mechanical maintenance will have to be automatic or automatically controlled and inspected.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|3.␈α⊂A␈α⊂new␈α⊂system␈α⊂of␈α⊂navigation␈α⊂and␈α⊂wind␈α⊂observation␈α⊂is␈α⊂required.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂navigation␈α⊂problem
␈↓ α,␈↓is␈α~easier.␈α~ The␈α~Navstar␈α~satellite␈α~navigation␈α~system␈α~is␈α~good␈α~to␈α~10␈α~meters,␈α~but␈α~this␈α~must␈α~be
␈↓ α,␈↓supplemented by a local system good to a few inches.
␈↓ α,␈↓Wind␈α⊗gusts␈α⊗must␈α⊗be␈α⊗detected␈α⊗and␈α⊗observed.␈α⊗ My␈α⊗candidate␈α⊗for␈α⊗this␈α⊗is␈α⊗␈↓↓lidar,␈↓␈α⊗i.e.␈α⊗radar␈α⊗using
␈↓ α,␈↓light.␈α_ The␈α_lidar,␈α_whether␈α_mounted␈α_on␈α_the␈α_∨yer␈α_or␈α_on␈α_the␈α_ground␈α_must␈α_scan␈α_the␈α_air␈α_mass
␈↓ α,␈↓through␈α⊃which␈α⊃the␈α⊃plane␈α⊃proposes␈α⊃to␈α⊃∨y␈α⊃and␈α⊃determine␈α⊃the␈α⊃velocity␈α⊃≡eld.␈α⊃ This␈α⊃can␈α⊃be␈α⊃done␈α⊃in
␈↓ α,␈↓principle␈α∩by␈α∩doppler␈α∩re∨ection␈α∩from␈α∩particles␈α∩suspended␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩air.␈α∩ So␈α∩far,␈α∩as␈α∩I␈α∩understand␈α∩it,
␈↓ α,␈↓the technique has mainly been used for atmospheric research.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|4.␈α⊂I␈α⊂don't␈α⊂know␈α⊂if␈α⊂the␈α⊂noise␈α⊂problem␈α⊂of␈α⊂helicopters␈α⊂can␈α⊂be␈α⊂su≠ciently␈α⊂solved.␈α⊂ If␈α⊂the␈α⊂answer
␈↓ α,␈↓is yes, then helicopters are an obvious candidate.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Another␈α∩candidate␈α∩is␈α∩the␈α∩airplane.␈α∩ For␈α∩this␈α∩purpose␈α∩the␈α∩airplane␈α∩must␈α∩be␈α∩capable␈α∩of␈α∩slow
␈↓ α,␈↓speed␈α∪∨ight.␈α∪ It␈α∪can␈α∪keep␈α∪the␈α∩noise␈α∪down␈α∪by␈α∪having␈α∪a␈α∪mu∞er␈α∪on␈α∪the␈α∪motor␈α∪and␈α∪a␈α∪large␈α∪slow-
␈↓ α,␈↓turning␈α∪propeller.␈α∪ Lockheed␈α∪built␈α∪experimental␈α∪models␈α∪of␈α∪such␈α∪a␈α∪plane,␈α∪called␈α∪the␈α∪Q-Star␈α∪for
␈↓ α,␈↓the Army in the 1960s.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|One␈α⊃possibility␈α⊃for␈α⊃landing␈α⊃is␈α⊃that␈α⊃the␈α⊃airplane␈α⊃land␈α⊃and␈α⊃take␈α⊃o≥␈α⊃from␈α⊃a␈α⊃perch␈α⊃like␈α⊃a␈α⊃bird
␈↓ α,␈↓using␈α∂legs.␈α∂ If␈α∂the␈α∂plane's␈α∂landing␈α∂speed␈α∂is␈α∂64␈α∂feet␈α∂per␈α∂second,␈α∂and␈α∂if␈α∂the␈α∂legs␈α∂can␈α∂extend␈α∂16␈α∂feet,
␈↓ α,␈↓then␈α∀an␈α∀acceleration␈α∀of␈α∀4g␈α∀will␈α∀stop␈α∀the␈α∀plane␈α∀in␈α∀one␈α∀half␈α∀second.␈α∀ I␈α∀believe␈α∀that␈α∀anyone␈α∀can
␈↓ α,␈↓withstand␈α≠this,␈α≠properly␈α≠supported,␈α≠because␈α≠it␈α≠isn't␈α≠necessary␈α≠to␈α≠breathe␈α≠during␈α≠that␈α≠time.
␈↓ α,␈↓Whether␈α~people␈α~will␈α~≡nd␈α~the␈α~short␈α~acceleration␈α~acceptable␈α~is␈α~a␈α~matter␈α~on␈α~which␈α~a␈α~priori
␈↓ α,␈↓opinions aren't worth much.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F3
␈↓ α,␈↓This version of ∨y.ess[ess,jmc] pubbed on October 24, 1989.
/FONT#0=BASL10[300,SYS]/FONT#1=BASI10[300,SYS]=,adilrr/FONT#2=BASB10[300,SYS]=∨ Paceghilmnorsyy/FONT#4=SUP[300,SYS]=122